National polls show slight post-convention bump for Obama
Results from three national polls showed a modest bump in voter approval for President Barack Obama following the Democratic National Convention.
The President has taken the lead – notably, outside the margin of error – over Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in the Gallup, Rasmussen, and Reuters/IPSOS polls released today. The results marked Obama’s widest lead over Romney since spring.
Here are the latest national poll results:
Gallup Poll* – Sept. 3 – 9, 2012
*The poll surveyed 3,050 registered voters nationwide and the margin of error is plus or minus 2%. The Gallup Poll for the week of Aug. 28 – Sept. 3 showed Obama leading Romney 47% to 46%.
Reuters/IPSOS* - Sept. 5 – 9, 2012
*The online poll surveyed 1,600 registered voters nationwide and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7%. The Reuters/IPSOS poll released on Aug. 30 showed Obama trailing Romney 42% to 44%.
Rasmussen* – Sept. 10, 2012
* The poll surveyed 1,500 voters over a 3-day period using automated telephone polling techniques The Rasmussen poll released on Aug. 30 showed Obama trailing Romney 44% to 45%.
Tracking polls released after the Republican National Convention also showed a slight ratings bump for Romney. A Reuters/IPSOS poll found Romney leading Obama by 2% with 44% compared to Obama’s 42%. Romney had a narrower lead against Obama – 45% to 44% – in the Rasmussen poll on Aug. 31.
“Obama’s convention bounce has been more significant than Romney’s,” according to Rasmussen Reports. “As with all bounces, it remains to be seen how long it will last.”
Post-convention approval rating bumps are typical and tend to to be temporary. In fact, in 2008, Obama and McCain both experienced brief bounces in the polls following their parties’ conventions. However, Obama quickly re-captured the lead by late-September, expanding it by 13 points before winning the election with 52.7% of the popular vote.
But this year’s presidential race is expected to be very close and the leads will likely switch several times over the next 56 days, depending on how the candidates perform in their debates and the types of ads that saturate the airwaves.
“Don’t get too worked up about the latest polling,” wrote Neil Newhouse, Romney for President Pollster. “While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly.”
- Rasmussen Reports: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
- Gallup Poll: Election 2012 Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney
- Gallup Poll: Gallup Daily: Election 2008
- Reuters/IPSOS: Survey for Sept 5-9, 2012 (PDF)
- MittRomney.com: Memorandum: State of the Race – Sept. 10, 2012
- WhatTheFolly.com: Romney appeals to voters’ sense of disappointment