Polls show Obama widening his lead in Ohio, Florida & Pennsylvania
Three polls released this week showed President Barack Obama widening his lead over Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in the three battleground states of Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania.
A Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times survey from Sept. 18-24 showed Obama leading Romney by 9% in Florida, 10% in Ohio, and 12% in Pennsylvania.
The Washington Post poll from Sept. 19-24 found a similar trend with Obama ahead in Florida by 9% and 11% in Ohio.
A Bloomberg National Poll from Sept. 21-24 has Romney trailing Obama by 6% nationwide.
All the results were outside the polls’ margins of error, ranging from +/- 2.8% to 4%.
Read more: Mitt Romney writes off 47% of Americans
The three polls were conducted days after a secret video recording was released showing Romney disparaging 47% of Americans who don’t earn enough to pay federal income tax. The surveys revealed that the majority of voters perceive Romney as ‘out of touch’ or uncaring about the voters’ needs and problems.
“Gov. Mitt Romney had a bad week in the media and it shows in these key swing states,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “The furor over his 47% remark almost certainly is a major factor in the roughly double-digit leads President Barack Obama has in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.”
In all three states, women overwhelmingly supported Obama while Romney held a slight edge with men and white voters. Independent voters were fairly evenly divided between the two candidates.
Florida holds 29 electoral votes, Pennsylvania holds 20 , Ohio holds 18. Each candidate must garner 270 electoral votes in order to win the Presidency.
Of the 10 potential swing states, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio account for more than half of the 130 electoral votes up for grabs.
Nate Silver, an astute and well-respected political analyst who writes for the New York Times’s Five Thirty Eight blog, projected that Obama will receive 312 electoral votes and Romney will receive 226 electoral votes in November.
To win the Presidency, Romney will need bridge a gap of 44 electoral votes. This week’s poll results did not bode well for Romney, particularly in Ohio which is considered one of Romney’s must-win states. But, as Silver noted in his post today, Romney can still carve a path to electoral college victory by winning states like Iowa and Wisconsin.
With six weeks left to go, a lot can happen to shift the momentum of either campaigns. The upcoming primetime televised debates will offer Romney ample opportunities to recover and make a compelling case to the American people why he is a better choice than Barack Obama.
Obama and Romney are scheduled to participate in three debates in the coming weeks:
- Wednesday, Oct. 3 from 9 p.m. to 10:30 p.m. EST / 6 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. PST in Denver, Colorado
- Tuesday, Oct. 16 from 9 p.m. to 10:30 p.m. EST / 6 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. PST in Hempstead, New York
- Monday, Oct. 22 from 9 p.m. to 10:30 p.m. EST / 6 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. PST in Boca Raton, Florida
Vice President Joe Biden and Republican VP nominee Paul Ryan will face off in Danville, Kentucky on Thursday, Oct. 11.
For more information, visit the Commission on Presidential Debates’ website at Debates.org.
Key findings from the Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times survey* released on Sept. 26:
* Cell and landline telephone survey conducted from Sept. 18 – 24, 2012 with 1,196 likely voters in Florida (margin +/- 2.8%); 1,162 likely voters in Ohio (margin +/- 2.9%); and 1,180 likely voters in Pennsylvania (margin +/- 2.9%)
- Obama 53%, Romney 44%
- Women voters prefer Obama over Romney 58% – 39%, a 19% difference
- Hispanic voters support Obama over Romney 55% to 41%, a 14% difference
- Romney holds a slight edge with white men and independent voters
- The majority of likely voters say Obama will do a better job than Romney on health care, Medicare, and handling the events in the Middle East
- 57% of likely voters say that Obama cares about their needs and problems
- 55% of likely voters say that Romney does not care about their needs and problems
- Obama 53%, Romney 43%
- 60% of women voters support Obama whereas only 35% support Romney – a 25% gap
- Romney retains edge on men and white voters
- Independent voters are split between Obama and Romney
- 58% of likely voters say that Romney’s policies will favor the rich; less than 9% say that Romney supports the middle-class
- Obama 54%, Romney 42%
- 58% of women voters favor Obama; Romney receives support from only 37% of women voters
- White men and independent voters are split between the two candidates
Key findings from the Washington Post poll* dated Sept. 23:
* Cell and landline telephone survey conducted from Sept. 19 – 23, 2012 with 925 registered voters in Florida (margin +/- 4%) and 934 registered voters in Ohio (margin +/- 4%).
- Obama 52%, Romney 43%
Who do registered voters trust to do a better job on:
- Economy: 49% Obama, 45% Romney
- Medicare: 53% Obama, 38% Romney
- Deficit: 49% Obama, 45% Romney
- Supporting the Middle-Class: 60% Obama, 35% Romney
- Military Spending: 52% Obama, 40% Romney
- 53% of registered voters say that Obama better understands “the economic problems people in this country are having” compared to 39% for Romney
- Obama 52%, Romney 41%
Who do registered voters trust to do a better job on:
- Economy: 50% Obama, 43% Romney
- Medicare: 56% Obama, 37% Romney
- Deficit: 43% Obama, 45% Romney
- Supporting the Middle-Class: 54% Obama, 35% Romney
- Military Spending: 48% Obama, 41% Romney
- 57% of registered voters say Obama better understands the “economic problems people in this country are having” compared to just 39% for Romney
Key findings from the Bloomberg National Poll* released on Sept. 26:
* Telephone survey conducted from Sept. 21 – 24, 2012 with 1,007 adults (margin +/- 3.1%).
- Obama leads Romney 49% to 43%
- 49% of likely voters say Romney is “out of touch”
- 53% disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy but 48% trust Obama’s ” vision for a successful future” compared to 39% for Romney
- Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times survey released on Sept. 26, 2012
- Bloomberg.com: Unfavorable Views of Romney Cloud His Message on Economy
- Washington Post poll September 19 to 23, 2012
- New York Times: Five Thirty Eight blog
- New York Times: Romney’s narrow path without Ohio
- WhatTheFolly.com: Commentary: Mitt Romney writes off 47% of Americans
- WhatTheFolly.com: Transcript: Mitt Romney’s remarks on ‘Obama voters’ at a Florida fundraiser
- WhatTheFolly.com: Commentary: Romney’s pathetic attempt to exploit deaths of U.S. embassy staff for political gain
- WhatTheFolly.com: Transcript: Press briefing remarks by Mitt Romney on the other 47%
- WhatTheFolly.com: Analysis: Romney’s tax plan would shift tax burden to middle and lower-income Americans